A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
